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August rate cut on a knife edge despite end of inflation crisis, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 17 Jul 2024

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the UK inflation figures for June 2024, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 17 July 2024):

“While these figures provide further reassurance that the UK’s inflation crisis is in the rear-view mirror, uncomfortably high services inflation suggests that its damaging after-effects are still being felt.

“Though it may slow in July, following the fall in Ofgem’s energy price cap, inflation is likely to drift moderately higher, thereafter, fuelled by stronger demand from a faster growing economy and low labour supply.

“Sticky services inflation will cause considerable unease at the Bank of England because it suggests that underlying price pressures are frustratingly persistent and leaves the UK more vulnerable to the impact of future price shocks.

“While anxiety over underlying price pressures keeps the prospect of an August interest rate cut on a knife edge, these figures should at the very least drive a more dovish vote split to signal that rate cuts are imminent.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841