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Christmas rate cut doubtful despite decline in October GDP, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 13 Dec 2024

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for October 2024, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 13 December 2024):

“These figures confirm that the UK economy stalled badly in the run-up to the budget as falling construction and production output helped drive a surprise decline in overall activity.  

“October’s negative outturn means the economy is struggling for momentum as the year draws to a close, with the fallout from the budget and growing global uncertainty likely to have dampened activity in November and December. 

“UK economic conditions should fare a little better in 2025, as the temporary sugar rush from stronger public spending and investment helps to lift GDP growth, despite strengthening global headwinds. 

“Despite these gloomy figures, the likelihood of a rate cut this month remains low with some policymakers likely to be concerned enough by the recent pick-up in inflation to defer relaxing policy again until February.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841