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December rate cut improbable despite Q3 GDP slowdown, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 15 Nov 2024

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 15 November 2024):

“These figures suggest that the economy went off the boil even before the budget, as weaker business and consumer confidence helped weaken output across the third quarter, particularly in September. 

“Following a ‘gangbusters’ first half of the year, the third quarter outturn paints a more realistic picture of the UK’s underlying growth trajectory given longstanding challenges over poor productivity and persistent supply side constraints.  

“Economic growth in the final quarter of this year is likely to be similarly modest with looming tax rises and growing global uncertainty likely to spark a renewed restraint to spend and invest, despite lower interest rates.  

“In spite of these downbeat figures, a December policy loosening looks improbable as rate setters will likely be concerned enough over inflation risks from the budget and growing global headwinds to resist signing off back-to-back interest rate cuts.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841