ICAEW.com works better with JavaScript enabled.

Suren Thiru: December rate cut unlikely following disappointing resurgence in inflation

Author: ICAEW

Published: 20 Nov 2024

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the UK inflation figures for October 2024, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Wednesday 20 November 2024):

“These figures confirm a disappointing resurgence in inflation as the recent tailwind from lower energy costs turned into a headwind in October, following the increase in Ofgem’s price cap which drove a notable jump in household bills.

“Inflation should drift gradually higher from here with rising energy bills, the impact of the Budget and global trade frictions likely to keep the headline rate hovering above the Bank of England’s 2% target until well into 2025.

“While the slight uptick in services price pressures confirms that it remains a significant hurdle to sustainably maintain inflation below target, slowing wage growth and a weakening labour market should help put it on a more consistent downward trajectory.

“October’s marked rise in inflation makes a December interest rate more unlikely and concerns over renewed price pressures from the budget and international uncertainty may draw a more reluctant approach among rate setters to future policy loosening.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office, 07557 161315 or ruth.pott-negrine@icaew.com