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November rate cut not a done deal following August GDP rally, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 11 Oct 2024

Responding to the latest UK GDP figures for August 2024, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 11 October 2024), Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, said:

“These figures confirm a reassuring rally in output, as easing inflation and better weather helped return the economy to growth by reviving activity in key sectors, including retail and manufacturing.

“August’s uptick is unlikely to have prevented a slowdown in GDP growth across the third quarter, as lower business and consumer confidence may well have squeezed activity in September.

“The UK economy could blow a bit hot and cold over the near term, as the lift to incomes from muted inflation is hindered by growing consumer and business caution amid global geopolitical uncertainty and probable tax hikes.

“While interest rates are still likely to fall in November, these positive figures mean it’s not quite a done deal by giving the more hawkish rate setters enough encouragement over economic conditions to hold off voting to relax policy.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

CONTACT: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841

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