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Strong economic performance in Q2 unlikely to be maintained, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 15 Aug 2024

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director responded to the latest UK GDP figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Thursday 15 August 2024):

“These figures confirm that the UK’s recovery from recession picked up steam in the second quarter, despite strike action and wet weather causing activity to flatline in June. 

“The UK’s strong second quarter owes more to temporary momentum from the large recent falls in inflation and a boost to consumer spending from events like Euro 2024 than from a meaningful improvement in the UK’s underlying growth trajectory. 

“This current pace of economic growth is unlikely to be maintained in the second half of the year as weaker wage growth, high interest rates and persistent supply constraints limits output.

“These strong second quarter growth figures may delay the next UK interest rate cut by giving those rate setters still worried about domestic price pressures enough assurances over the strength of the economy to hold off relaxing policy.”  

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Contact: ICAEW media office media.office@icaew.com, tom.mackintosh@icaew.com or 07866 853 841