“The Chancellor will be disappointed that late self-assessment tax receipts were not sufficient to offset overruns in public spending ahead of the Spring Statement.

“Although today’s data is too late to be reflected in the OBR forecast the Chancellor will present to Parliament next Wednesday, it will still influence her thinking about whether to cut the amount of public spending allocated to this summer’s three-year Spending Review. Any potential improvement to the public finances caused by the proposed cuts to welfare are a long way off so the key question is whether the Chancellor can avoid major decisions on further tax rises ahead of the Autumn Budget later this year, or if pressures from today’s numbers will force her hand.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1. The provisional monthly deficit for February 2025 of £10.7bn was £0.1 bn more than in the same month a year previously, £4.2bn more than the £6.5bn estimated by the OBR last October, and £10.1bn more than the £0.6bn that was originally budgeted.
2. The cumulative deficit for the eleven months to February 2025 of £132bn was £15bn more than for the same period in 2023/24, £20bn more than the £112bn estimated by the OBR last October, and £58bn more than the £74bn that was originally budgeted.
3. The OBR's October forecast was for a monthly deficit of £15bn in March 2025, which if delivered, and subject to any revisions to these provisional numbers, would imply a financial deficit for 2024/25 of somewhere in the region of £145bn to £150bn.