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Suren Thiru: February rate cut probable amid disappointingly modest return to growth

Author: ICAEW

Published: 16 Jan 2025

Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for November 2024, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Thursday 16 January 2025):

“This disappointingly modest return to growth for the UK economy is unlikely to ease stagflation concerns, with a recovery in service sector output helping drive only a slight strengthening in overall activity. 

“November’s uptick is unlikely to have sparked a more notable improvement in economic activity across the fourth quarter with the dramatic damage to confidence from the budget and global uncertainty expected to have suppressed activity in December.

“Beyond the political noise, a key lesson from this financial market turbulence is the need to address our longstanding challenges of poor productivity and persistent supply side constraints, to help better insulate us against these external shocks.

“Though these disappointing figures make a February interest rate cut more probable, concerns over financial market fragility and heightened global inflation risks mean a policy loosening next month is not quite done and dusted.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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