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Unnerving GDP drop a headache for Chancellor and rate setters, ICAEW says

Author: ICAEW

Published: 14 Mar 2025

Suren Thiru, ICAEW Economics Director, responded to the latest UK GDP figures for January 2025, released by the Office for National Statistics today (Friday 14 March 2025):

“These figures confirm an unnerving drop in economic output during January’s financial market turbulence, as a notably poor month for construction and manufacturers severely hindered overall activity. 

“The UK’s economic performance may have been similarly downbeat in February, with any boost from consumer spending amid strong wage growth and lower interest rates weakened by the brake on business activity from this torrent of global uncertainty.  

“This decline makes the upcoming Spring Statement more problematic as it reinforces the prospect of a notable downgrade to the OBR’s growth forecasts, further undermining the Chancellor’s spending plans. 

“Despite these disappointing figures, a rate cut next week looks unlikely as rate setters will probably want to assess the impact of April’s national insurance hike on inflation before sanctioning another policy loosening.” 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

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