Our chart of the week is on how much the US federal government owes has grown over the past decade. Total debt has increased by 99% from £17.8tn in September 2014 to $35.5tn at the end of the most recent financial year on 30 September 2024, reflecting a 121% increase in debt held by the public from $12.8tn to $28.3tn over 10 years, and a 44% increase in intragovernmental debt from $5.0tn to £7.2tn over the same period.

Debt held by the public on 30 September 2024 is equivalent to 97.8% of GDP, up from 96.0% of GDP a year earlier and from 73.3% of GDP at the end of the 2014 fiscal year.

Debt held by the public comprises amounts owed to banks, other corporations, individuals, and non-federal entities (including states) in the US and to foreign investors, including foreign governments. Intragovernmental debt includes amounts owed to the US social security system and funds carried forward by federal agencies, among others.

The increase in US federal debt held by the public has primarily been driven by borrowing to fund fiscal deficits incurred over the past decade, which amounted to $0.4tn, $0.6tn, $0.7tn, $0.8tn, $1.0tn, $3.1tn, $2.8tn, $1.4tn, $1.7tn and $1.8tn in the financial years ending 30 September 2015 through to 2024. Although the deficit peaked at $3.1tn in the year to 30 September 2020 during the pandemic, it has continued to exceed a trillion dollars each year since then.

The provision deficit in the year to 2024 of $1,833bn comprised $4,919bn in tax and other receipts, less $6,752bn in total outlays. 

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit is expected to average $2.2tn a year over the next decade, with debt held by the public on the basis of their most recent projections expected to rise to almost $51tn or 122% of GDP in September 2034.

The assumptions behind those projections don’t take account of the plans of the incoming Trump administration to slash taxes and federal spending over the next four years, which could result in a variety of different paths for debt that are currently difficult to predict.