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What are the fluctuating exchange rates telling us?

With Donald Trump being agitated over exchange rates, especially that of the dollar against the euro and the Chinese yuan, David Smith asks: what are the fluctuations in exchange rates really telling us?

FS Focus June 2019 image - David SmithDonald Trump has been getting very agitated about exchange rates this  year, particularly the dollar’s exchange rate against the euro and the Chinese yuan. In recent months he almost accused the European Central Bank (ECB) of currency manipulation and making it “unfairly easy” for Europe to  compete with America, before actually accusing the Chinese authorities of such manipulation.

But the complaints of the US president have not been the only currency story of note this year. Sterling has been the Brexit barometer for more than three years now, falling initially upon the referendum result in June 2016, with the sharpest fall for any major currency in the floating rate era that began in the 1970s. It has then risen and fallen – well, mainly fallen – on the question of whether Britain would be leaving the EU with a deal, without a deal, or not at all.